The FullCount: Playoffs, Fish 1B, Patience, wOBA - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

The FullCount: Playoffs, Fish 1B, Patience, wOBA Stuck

Posted on July 6, 2012 at 10:28 AM.

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With the final weekend before Baseball�s All-Star break upon us, teams are looking at the standings, sizing themselves up, and deciding upon a course of action in the trade market. With the additional Wild Card spot, more teams have a legitimate chance of making the postseason. That will complicate the early trade market, but likely make the waiver trade deadline much more interesting this season. While the season is taking place, history tells us that half of the current division leaders will not be postseason participants. That means three of the six division leaders---the Yankees, White Sox, Rangers, Nationals, Pirates, and Dodgers--won�t be playing in October.

The first two seem obvious as the White Sox and Pirates both play in a weaker division, but with a far more talented team in it. The White Sox will have to worry about the Tigers who are almost back at the .500 mark. The Pirates� offense has been better this month, but the Reds are just two games behind. But, the beauty of Baseball is that anything can happen. The Pirates pitching may just hold up. Their offense does need another bat and it will be interesting to see if they can take on some payroll in order to remain in the race.

Pitch One: Howard Returns
The Phillies had a heartbreaking loss to the Mets last night as David Wright drove home the winning run against Jonathan Papelbon to send the Phillies to their 47th loss and putting them 13 games behind the division leading Nationals. But, Ryan Howard is set to return to the lineup. Roy Halladay is expected back after the break. For the first time all season, the Phillies will have their entire team in tact. They have a month to show their General Manager that they have a run in them.

Pitch Two: Marlins First Base Hole Gets Deeper
When the Marlins opened the season, they didn�t figure that first base would be one of their worst deficiencies. Gaby Sanchez was coming off an encouraging season. Marlins first basemen are hitting just .240/.300/.383. In terms of WAR, Marlins� first basemen are minus 0.1. With the Marlins struggling, they traded for veteran Carlos Lee by sending Matt Dominguez and Rob Rasmussen to the Astros. While the Marlins got the Astros to pay Lee�s remaining salary, they aren�t, unless something drastic happens, getting real improvement. Lee was once one of the most consistent power hitting performers in the game. Now, he is steadily declining, had to move to first base, and is no longer a power hitter. He is batting .290/.338/.416 with 15 doubles, 5 homeruns, and 29 RBI in 67 games. Perhaps Lee rediscovers his power stroke, but he is, essentially, producing at the same rate as the rest of the Marlins� first basemen.

Pitch Three: Patience Required
We always clamor for the great prospect to be brought up immediately. Some teams will keep their players down on the farm in order to gain an extra year of control, but most teams have a development plan that they follow. Most teams are usually right in waiting. There are very few Stephen Strasburgs, Bryce Harpers, or Mike Trouts. Most young prospects need developmental time. The Diamondbacks called up their 2011 first round pick, 21 year old Trevor Bauer last week. In his first 23 games as a professional, Bauer was impressive. He posted a 12.1 K/9 rate while walking 4.4 batters per nine innings and posting a 3.03 ERA. This season, he made 8 dominant starts in double-A and 8 very good starts in triple-A to earn the call up. The Diamondbacks were, and still are, on the fringe of the pennant race, but have clearly regressed after last season�s surprise when everything went right. Bauer was looked at as a savior.

It hasn�t happened. In two starts, Bauer has looked overmatched, giving up 8 earned runs in 7.1 innings work on 11 hits while walking 7 and striking out 7. There is no doubt that Bauer is talented and that he can be an ace in the Major Leagues. But, he is a reminder, that patience must rule the day and that rookies are unpredictable and often take time to find their sea legs at the Major League level.

Pitch Four: Bad Timing Ricky

The Toronto Blue Jays have been decimated by injuries. Ricky Romero was supposed to be their ace. Thus far, he has been nothing of the sort. On the year, Romero has thrown 104 innings, allowed 100 hits, 4.7 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, and a 5.35 ERA. In his last 9 innings, over the course of two starts, he has allowed 18 hits and 17 runs. He has allowed four more runs in 9 of his 17 starts. His walk rate is at an all-time high and his strikeout rate is the lowest of his career. Even more troubling, batters are making five percent more contact against him this season. The 27 year old is either in a slump or hiding an injury. Judging from the team�s history, the latter has to be a possibility.

Pitch Five: wOBA
wOBA, weighted on base average, is one of my favorite offensive statistics. It�s a great statistic because it dives deeper into what hits are more valuable because as we know, not all hits are equal. Batting average and on base percentage do just that. wOBA takes all aspects of hitting into one statistic and weights them according to their run value.

The current wOBA leaders:
Joey Votto .448
Carlos Ruiz .430
Andrew McCutchen .428
Josh Hamilton .424
Mike Trout .424
David Wright .421
Carlos Gonzalez .420